BARTOW, Fla. — Oct. 25, 2026 — Florida's orange growers expect to fill about 10 million boxes this season, according to the first federal forecast of the 2026-2027 citrus year. That is 23 percent fewer than last season's final production.[1]

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released the forecast on Oct. 9 from its Florida field office in Maitland. It works with the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services.[1] Each Florida orange box holds 90 pounds of fruit, so 10 million boxes comes to roughly 900 million pounds of oranges.[1]

The numbers at a glance

The forecast breaks Florida's crop into types:[1]

  • All oranges: 10.0 million boxes, down from 12.95 million last season
  • Non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season and Navel): 3.0 million boxes, down 37 percent
  • Valencia oranges: 7.0 million boxes, down 14 percent
  • Grapefruit: 1.3 million boxes (1.2 million red and 100,000 white), down 4 percent
  • Tangerines and tangelos: 450,000 boxes, down 2 percent
  • Lemons: 950,000 boxes, up 6 percent

Lemons are new to the report. NASS began estimating Florida lemons only with the 2024-2025 crop, when it counted 670,000 boxes. The count rose to 900,000 the next season.[1]

How the count works

The forecast is not a guess. NASS says all of its citrus forecasts "are based on actual fruit counts and measurements."[1] The method has four parts:[1]

  1. Trees. Bearing trees come from the latest Commercial Citrus Inventory, with an attrition factor for losses since then. Field work for that inventory ended in June 2026.
  2. Fruit per tree. Workers count fruit on randomly selected limbs of randomly selected trees from mid-July to mid-September.
  3. Fruit size. A separate survey measures how big the fruit is growing.
  4. Fruit drop. A drop survey estimates how much fruit will fall before harvest.

All four measures point down this year.

Fewer trees, smaller fruit

NASS puts Florida's bearing orange trees at 17.0 million. Trees planted in 2023 or earlier count as bearing.[1]

For non-Valencia oranges, bearing trees (including Navels) number 4.70 million, down 24 percent from the previous season. Excluding Navels, the average tree holds 394 oranges, 18 fewer than last year. The fruit is expected to finish smaller than the 10-season minimum, so it will take about 340 oranges to fill one 90-pound box. NASS projects 35 percent of that fruit will drop before harvest.[1]

Valencias are the later-season oranges and make up 70 percent of this year's orange forecast. There are 12.3 million bearing Valencia trees, down 12 percent. Each tree averages 276 pieces of fruit, 14 fewer than last season. Fruit size is also projected below the minimum, with about 280 Valencias per box. Projected drop is above average at 40 percent.[1]

Grapefruit is the bright spot. Red grapefruit drop is projected below average at 24 percent, and final fruit size is expected to be above average.[1]

A tough run of seasons

NASS compares these numbers with the previous 10 seasons, but it leaves several out of its averages. It excludes 2017-2018 (Hurricane Irma), 2022-2023 (Hurricanes Ian and Nicole), 2024-2025 (Hurricane Milton) and 2025-2026, which the agency says "was affected by a freeze."[1]

The report's own three-year table shows the trend. Florida produced 18.06 million boxes of oranges in 2023-2024. That fell to 12.28 million in 2024-2025, then rose slightly to 12.95 million in 2025-2026, before this forecast of 10.0 million.[1]

What the state's citrus agency says

The Florida Department of Citrus is the state agency in charge of marketing, regulation and research for the industry, based in Bartow. It welcomed the forecast with an upbeat message.[2]

"The tenacity and grit of Florida Citrus growers cannot be overstated," said Shannon Shepp, the department's executive director, in an Oct. 9 statement. "In partnership with our best-in-class research community, Florida Citrus remains a significant economic driver in the state of Florida and well-positioned for future investment."[2]

The department says Florida citrus contributes $6 billion to the state's economy.[2]

What comes next

This is the first of four forecasts this season. NASS will release updates on Jan. 12, April 9 and July 9, 2027.[1] Survey data for non-Valencia oranges and grapefruit becomes final in January, and for Valencias in April.[1] Each new forecast will show whether the fruit grows larger than expected or more of it falls.

Sources

  1. USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, Florida Field Office, "Citrus October Forecast and Fruit Size," Oct. 9, 2026. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Florida/Publications/Citrus/Citrus_Forecast/2026-27/26%20Oct%2009%20Forecast.pdf (forecast schedule: https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Florida/Publications/Citrus/Citrus_Forecast/)
  2. Florida Department of Citrus, "USDA Releases First Citrus Crop Forecast of the Season," news release, Oct. 9, 2026. https://www.floridacitrus.org/grower/fr/fdoc-news-item/usda-releases-first-citrus-crop-forecast-of-the-season/

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