ARCADIA, FL, Nov. 5, 2026 — Floodwater that has been working through Florida's river systems since last weekend's heavy rain was cresting or still rising Thursday evening, according to National Weather Service flood warnings and National Water Prediction Service gauge readings Launchpad checked for the Evening Brief.

Peace River at Arcadia: at the forecast crest

The National Weather Service Tampa Bay Flood Warning that remains in effect for the Peace River at Arcadia at SR 70 said major flooding was occurring and forecast. At 10:30 a.m. EST Thursday the stage was 16.2 feet, with a forecast crest of 16.4 feet "this evening," the 10:58 a.m. EST statement said. Flood stage is 11.0 feet; major flood stage is 16.0 feet.

By evening, the NOAA NWPS gauge ARCF1 (Peace River at SR 70 Arcadia) reported an observed stage of 16.43 feet at 5:30 p.m. ET (22:30 UTC), still in the major flood category, with a forecast near 16.4 feet into the evening. That puts the river at or slightly above the morning forecast crest and above the 16.0-foot crest of Feb. 21, 1998, which NWS cited for comparison.

At 16.0 feet, NWS says up to 60 homes at River Acres are flooded and the Woman's Club and American Legion are impacted. Turn around, don't drown remains the standing advice: most flood deaths happen in vehicles.

Horse Creek near Arcadia at SR 72 (gauge ARHF1) was at 12.58 feet at 5:30 p.m. ET in minor flood (flood stage 12.0 feet), down from 12.9 feet in the morning NWS product. NWS said the creek is expected to fall below flood stage Friday evening.

St. Johns River: Cocoa near major; Astor still moderate

NWS Melbourne updated St. Johns River flood warnings mid-afternoon Thursday:

  • Near Cocoa (COCF1): At 2:15 p.m. EST the stage was 16.9 feet in moderate flood (flood stage 16.0 feet). NWS forecasts a rise into major flood late this week, cresting at 17.1 feet late this weekend into early next week. Evening NWPS data showed about 16.89 feet at 5:15 p.m. ET, still moderate. At 17.2 feet, NWS says water enters homes along the river in the Lake Poinsett area west of Cocoa and low-lying homes in Rockledge and Cocoa; Providence Road can become impassable.
  • Above Lake Harney near Geneva (GENF1): 8.9 feet at 2:30 p.m. EST in minor flood (flood stage 8.0 feet); forecast to rise into moderate flood late Thursday night toward about 9.7 feet early next week. Evening observation was about 8.89 feet.
  • Near Sanford (SNFF1): 5.2 feet at 2:30 p.m. EST, below the 5.5-foot flood stage, with a forecast climb into minor flood over the next couple of days toward 6.3 feet early next week. Evening observation about 5.17 feet.
  • Near DeLand (DLAF1): About 4.0 feet at 2:30 p.m. EST at flood stage, forecast to rise through minor flood toward 4.6 feet early next week. Evening observation about 3.97 feet (action category on the gauge).
  • Near Astor (ASTF1): 3.2 feet at 2:30 p.m. EST in moderate flood (flood stage 2.3 feet), expected to hold near 3.2–3.4 feet into early next week as upstream water keeps moving north.

Those St. Johns stages match the pattern Launchpad has tracked since Gov. Ron DeSantis expanded the flood emergency and NWS kept river warnings in place along the upper and middle basin.

What's next

NWS Tampa Bay said its next Peace River / Horse Creek statement would come late Thursday night at midnight EST. Melbourne's St. Johns products likewise point to another round late tonight. Dry weather into early next week should help the Peace River begin a slow decline after the crest, NWS and local forecast offices have said, while the St. Johns can keep rising as water from last week's rain works downstream.

Never drive into flooded roads. Check weather.gov for the latest warnings and county emergency management for road closures.

Sources: NWS Tampa Bay Flood Warning (Peace River at Arcadia / Horse Creek), 10:58 a.m. EST Nov. 5, 2026; NWS Melbourne Flood Warnings for St. Johns near Cocoa, Above Lake Harney, Sanford, DeLand and Astor, ~3:03–3:15 p.m. EST Nov. 5; NOAA National Water Prediction Service gauges ARCF1, ARHF1, COCF1, GENF1, SNFF1, DLAF1, ASTF1 (evening observed stages Nov. 5, 2026); NWS active alerts API for Florida.

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