TAMPA, Fla. (Oct. 25, 2026) — Florida may need umbrellas more than sweaters this winter. NOAA's U.S. Winter Outlook, released Oct. 15, says a very strong El Niño will likely shape December 2026 through February 2027. It points to wetter-than-average conditions across the southern U.S., "from California to Florida" [1].

What El Niño is doing

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) says the current El Niño "continues to strengthen." An El Niño advisory is in effect and is favored to last through spring 2027 [2]. CPC reported the latest weekly Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature index at +2.4 degrees Celsius [2]. CPC also linked El Niño to this year's very active tropical seasons in the central and eastern Pacific and the well-below-normal Atlantic hurricane season [2].

National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said, "a very strong El Nino will likely bring a southward and eastward shift to the jet stream for the contiguous U.S., which tilts the odds toward stormier weather across the South" [1].

The forecast for Florida

  • Rain: CPC says the greatest chance of a wetter-than-normal season is "forecast for the Southeast and Florida" [2].
  • Temperatures: NOAA says near-normal temperatures are most likely for parts of the Southeast, including Florida [1]. For November through January, CPC favors above-normal temperatures for South Florida [2].
  • Drought: NOAA's drought outlook through January predicts drought will improve or end across the Southeast [1].

What it could mean locally

The National Weather Service office in Tampa Bay expects near-normal temperatures and above-normal rainfall for West Central and Southwest Florida [3]. It notes that in strong El Niño winters, December has tended to average near to slightly above normal, while January and February have tended to run below normal [3].

The office also says a farther-south storm track tends to bring more severe weather during a very strong El Niño. It said "it could be an active winter into early spring across the Florida peninsula" [3]. It expects a few freezes, especially along the Nature Coast. It says that depends more on the Arctic Oscillation than on El Niño, and that "prolonged cold weather is not anticipated at this time" [3].

Keep in mind

These outlooks give the odds of above-, near- or below-average conditions, not daily forecasts [1]. CPC updates its three-month outlook monthly, and NOAA says the next update is due Nov. 19 [1]. NOAA directs residents to weather.gov for current watches and warnings and to weather.gov/safety for winter preparedness [1].

Sources

  1. NOAA, "El Nino looms large over U.S. Winter Outlook" (Oct. 15, 2026): https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/el-nino-looms-large-over-us-winter-outlook
  2. NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks (Oct. 15, 2026): https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/fxus05.html
  3. National Weather Service Tampa Bay, "Winter Outlook 2026-27 and ENSO's Effect on Our Weather": https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ENSOWinter

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